Mr Steve Okun, Chief Executive Officer of APAC Advisors Singapore, gave an RSIS Seminar on 22 October 2024 titled “The 2024 Presidential Election: Dynamics and Foreign Policy Implications.”
Mr Okun discussed the state of the race, noting that an overwhelming majority of American voters are unhappy and want a change from incumbent President Joe Biden. He observed that Vice President Kamala Harris must present herself as a change candidate if she wants to win. In comparison, Donald Trump has a good campaign team, but is a terrible candidate, and the issue on abortion continues to weigh heavily on his electoral chances. The race will be especially close this year, with both candidates having an electoral floor and ceiling of between 47 and 49 percent of the vote. This is a consequence of the growing polarisation of the American electorate.
In the final leadup to the election, Mr Okun observed that there may still be twists and scandals that may yet influence the outcome of the election, including a war between Isreal and Iran. He noted that Vice President Harris has a superior “Get Out the Vote” (GOTV) operation in the seven swing states as compared to the Trump campaign, but that Elon Musk appears to be filling that gap in Pennsylvania.
Looking ahead, Mr Okun cautioned that a second Trump administration would look much different from his first time in office. His cabinet would be staffed with loyalists, while he would be more prepared to execute his vision on immigration, tariffs, and other issues rapidly. Depending on his choice of cabinet members, he may also pursue a very hardline decoupling policy with China. Vice President Harris, on the other hand, would also pursue a policy of competition with China, but in a more restrained and multilateral manner by incorporating US partners.
