Donald Trump’s return to the White House on 24 January 2025 has ended the post-1945 ‘Pax Americana’ which underpinned eighty years of relative global stability and expanding opportunity. Under the banner of ‘America First’, he has upended the rules of global commerce and endorsed the notion that big powers have spheres of influence, instilling fear among smaller states that they could once again fall victim to the predations of the large. His statements and actions have destroyed the political trust that had underpinned America’s alliances in Europe and Asia.
Will we now return to a more disordered world in which today’s big three – the United States, China and Russia – assert their power as they see fit, and smaller states cope as best they can? Or are we at the dawn of a new period, in which mid-sized states escape the orbit of the big and evolve into ‘middle powers’ that can help the world chart a different future?
To address these questions, RSIS welcomed Sir Robin Niblett to deliver an RSIS Distinguished Public Lecture, held on May 2026. Sir Robin Niblett was the visiting S. Rajaratnam Professor of Strategic Studies, RSIS in May; and is a Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, United Kingdom.
At the lecture, Sir Robin spoke on the implications of a changing global order, examining the relative influence of major powers, the resilience of smaller and mid-sized states, and the role that emerging middle powers can play in shaping the future international balance of power. He assessed whether the big three are as powerful as they seem, and mid-sized and smaller countries as powerless as they fear. The lecture delved into the sources of international influence and national resilience in the second quarter of the twenty-first century; including the strengths and weaknesses of international institutions, and the impacts on the global balance of power of the ongoing energy transition and the race to harness transformative technological innovation. Sir Robin also offered some broad recommendations for how the world’s emerging middle powers can work together to convert this period of uncertainty into a new balance of international power, one that lays some of the ghosts of the 20th century to rest.
Watch the lecture here:
During his visit, Sir Robin was also a guest on the In Conversation podcast where he talked about the future of middle powers in an era of geopolitical uncertainty, shifting alliances, and growing competition among the world’s major powers.
Listen to the episode here:
